On 5 November 2026, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) published the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan. It keeps the overall permanent resident target at 380,000 a year, but it moves space between the two routes most skilled workers compare: Express Entry and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP).
If you are weighing a federal Express Entry profile against a provincial nomination, the split between those two lines is the part of the plan that touches you most directly. Here is what changed, what the numbers can tell you, and what they cannot.
For 2027 the plan sets 100,000 admissions for Express Entry's federal high-skilled programs, down from the 111,000 planned a year earlier, and 95,000 for the PNP, up from 92,500, so the two routes are now close to the same size (IRCC, 5 Nov 2026).
Budget 2026 funds the 2027-2029 levels plan, a 200,000-person PR transition and TFWP reform. What is funded, what is only proposed, and what it means.
How much space did each route get?
The plan sets economic-class admissions at 244,700 a year for 2027 to 2029, about 64.4% of all permanent residents (IRCC, 5 Nov 2026). Within that, the two largest lines are Federal High Skilled, which covers the Federal Skilled Worker Program, the Federal Skilled Trades Program and the Canadian Experience Class, all managed through Express Entry, and the Provincial Nominee Program.
| Program line | Last year's plan for 2027 | 2027 target (new plan) | 2027 range | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal High Skilled (Express Entry) | 111,000 | 100,000 | 87,000–123,000 | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 92,500 | 95,000 | 83,000–106,000 | 95,000 | 95,000 |
| Atlantic Immigration Program | 4,000 | 6,000 | – | 6,000 | 6,000 |
| Rural Community Immigration Program | new line | 5,500 | – | 6,000 | 6,500 |
Sources: IRCC supplementary information for the 2027–2029 and 2026–2028 plans. For comparison, last year's plan had 109,000 for Federal High Skilled and 91,500 for the PNP in 2026.
Why did provinces gain while Express Entry lost?
IRCC describes the change as "modestly increasing provincial programs" (IRCC, 5 Nov 2026). Against last year's figures for 2027, the PNP goes from 92,500 to 95,000 while Federal High Skilled goes from 111,000 to 100,000. The regional programs also grow: the Atlantic Immigration Program goes from 4,000 to 6,000, and the Rural Community Immigration Program now has its own line, starting at 5,500 in 2027 and rising to 6,500 in 2029. IRCC says that line includes the remaining files from the earlier rural pilots.
The plan also names priority sectors: education, healthcare, construction, AI and digital innovation, defence, energy and critical minerals (IRCC, 5 Nov 2026). Neither route is tied to that list by the plan itself, but it signals where both federal category draws and provincial streams are likely to focus.
What is the extra 100,000 for workers, and does it change the comparison?
Separately from the targets above, IRCC announced a one-year, time-limited measure for 2027 that sits outside the levels plan. It provides up to 100,000 additional permanent resident spaces for workers already in Canada, outside Quebec, and their families, delivered with the provinces and territories (IRCC, 5 Nov 2026). IRCC says it is "not a new pathway" and that applicants "do not need to apply separately or take any additional steps".
The two official descriptions of who is covered are worded differently, and you should read both:
- IRCC's measures page lists workers waiting for a decision on a PR application under programs now closed to new applications (Start-up Visa, Self-Employed Persons, the Agri-Food Pilot and the home care worker pilots), or workers eligible to apply for PR through the PNP.
- Budget 2026 describes it as a plan to "transition 100,000 workers eligible for Express Entry or the Provincial Nominee Program, increasing provincial and territorial share" (Department of Finance, 5 Nov 2026).
Neither text sets out selection rules. What both make clear is that provinces have a role, which matches the direction of the main plan. The measure creates space; it does not promise permanent residence to any person or group.
What do these numbers not tell you?
- Draw sizes or score cutoffs. A lower Express Entry target means fewer invitations over the year, but the plan does not say how IRCC will spread them across draws or categories, or what Comprehensive Ranking System scores will be needed.
- Your province's allocation. The PNP figure is a national total. How it is shared among provinces, and which streams each province opens, is decided outside this document.
- That one route is now "better". Federal High Skilled is still the larger line. The ranges overlap, and actual admissions can land anywhere inside them.
- Anything about Quebec. Quebec selects its own skilled workers; its line is marked to be determined in Quebec's own plan.
How should a skilled worker read this when choosing?
Start from your own profile rather than the totals. If your score is competitive in federal draws, Express Entry still has the larger allocation. If it is not, a provincial nomination matters more than before, because provinces now hold a share close to the federal one and are named as partners in the 2027 worker measure. Many provincial streams are linked to Express Entry, so the two routes are often used together rather than chosen between; nominations made that way count in the PNP line.
Our Express Entry tool helps you see where your profile stands, and the provincial nominee guides compare what each province asks for. Before filing anything, check the current rules on the IRCC and provincial pages; VisaRoads offers mentorship, not legal advice.
Sources
- IRCC, Supplementary Information for the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan (read 5 Nov 2026)
- IRCC, Supplementary Information for the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan
- IRCC, Canada's immigration levels
- IRCC, Managing a responsive and predictable immigration system
- Department of Finance, Budget 2026 (5 Nov 2026), chapter 3.4